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September 30th, 2013 by WorldWideMarkets
AUDCAD:  Bearish Pullback nearing bullish support lines The daily candle chart below shows the price history of the Australian Dollar (AUD) versus the Canadian Dollar (CAD) over the medium term (since April 2013 to the present). This pair is known as AUDCAD and is currently trading near .9615 (as of publication). Over the past 11 trading sessions the pair has been following a short term bearish resistance line (point 4 in yellow on chart) after finding resistance near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (point 6 in white) following a bullish breakout from medium term bearish resistance (point 1 in red). The target of the 38.2% level was predicted along with the price of .9750 by mid-September in a previous article on the pair earlier in the month, following the bullish breakout. AUDCAD is approaching the 23.6% Fibonacci level (point 6) which was just 40 pips lower from todays’ low of .9569, the former of which coincides near the support line of a linear regression indicator (point 8- which automatically self-adjusts over time) which if reached could both provide a bounce and bullish reversal. If the 23.6% level is reached and fails to hold the downtrend, then the pair may dive steeply towards the medium term bearish resistance line (point 1) which would indicate a return to the prior trend noted in the previous article (as prior to the bullish breakout). Since the pair is trading closer to session highs (of .9620) today, there is also a likelihood of a breakout to the upside above the short term resistance line (point 4) which if happened could provide a bullish continuation line (such as point 5) to develop with a target of the 38.2% Fibonacci level (point 6) again. Below are examples of how to trade a bullish continuation or a bearish reversal: 1.  BULLISH BUY ENTRY ORDER: Create a “Buy Entry Stop” @ .9629 with a Limit to take profit @ .9692 and a stop-loss @.9599 Risk/Reward Summary: Limit risk = +63 pips profit /  (-30) Stop-loss risk = Gain to Loss ratio =  2.1 2.  BEARISH SELL ENTRY ORDER: Create a “Sell Entry Stop” @ .9536 with a Limit to take profit @ .9499 and a stop-loss @ .9561 Risk/Reward Summary:   Limit risk = +37 pips profit / (-25) Stop-loss risk = Gain to Loss Ratio = 1.48 medium term daily candle chart: audcaddailyAUDCAD:  Bearish Pullback nearing bullish support lines The daily candle chart below shows the price history of the Australian Dollar (AUD) versus the Canadian Dollar (CAD) over the medium term (since April 2013 to the present). This pair is known as AUDCAD and is currently trading near .9615 (as of publication). Over the ...
September 3rd, 2013 by WorldWideMarkets
AUDCAD:  Bullish Momentum After Break Above Medium Term Bearish Resistance Line The daily candle chart below shows AUDCAD breaking and closing above medium term bearish resistance (point 1 on chart) in yesterday’s trading session where it also reopened today above -confirming a breakout to the upside - with bullish momentum following pushing the pair above the 23.6% Fibonacci level (point 6) and near session highs coinciding just above a short term bullish trend line (point 5) which may provide further continuation with a target of the 38.2% Fibonacci level (also point 6) intersecting near .9750 by mid-September. The bearish trend in AUDCAD was noted in a previous article on the pair in July 2013, where the medium term bearish resistance line (point 1) was highlighted and has since provided resistance repeatedly until its failure to resist prices in yesterday and today’s session where the pair is currently trading just above near .9538 (as of publication). If the current bullish support lines (point 5) fail, the medium term bearish line (point 1) may be targeted and could act as support (to support a descent) with further support below on a long term bearish support line (point 7) just below near .9200 by mid-September. A regression analysis indicator (point 8) is also included to emphasize the essence of the trend which appears to have changed.   Below are examples of how to trade a bullish continuation or a bearish reversal: 1.  BULLISH BUY ENTRY ORDER: Create a “Buy Entry Stop” @ .9559 with a Limit to take profit @ .9599 and a stop-loss @ .9529 Risk/Reward Summary: Limit risk = + 40 pips profit /   (-30) Stop-loss risk = Gain to Loss ratio = 1.33 2.  BEARISH SELL ENTRY ORDER: Create a “Sell Entry Stop” @ .9439 with a Limit to take profit @ .9380 and a stop-loss @ .9468 Risk/Reward Summary:   Limit risk = +59 pips profit / (-29) Stop-loss risk = Gain to Loss Ratio = 2.03 audcaddailyAUDCAD:  Bullish Momentum After Break Above Medium Term Bearish Resistance Line The daily candle chart below shows AUDCAD breaking and closing above medium term bearish resistance (point 1 on chart) in yesterday’s trading session where it also reopened today above -confirming a breakout to the upside - with bullish momentum ...
August 30th, 2013 by WorldWideMarkets

ScreenHunter

"أريد إزالة هذا الغموض من السوق"

 نسمع هذه الجملة كثير مئات المرات تحرك السوق الى لأعلى او الى الأسفل او جانبيا" او لم يتحرك نهائيا هذه الجمل تتصدر كليشات الصخافة المالية

 كلما أسمع هذه الجملة أنا أسأل نفسي،و الذين في السوق . ما هو هذا السوق؟الرد بسيط بحسب تعبير بوجو "لقد التقيناالسوق و هو لنا"

هذا السوق و أي سوق يحتاج الى تركيز ذهني شديدو هو مجموع من اراء المتداولين فيه عن موضوع واحد -السعر او لنكون اكثر دقة هو مستوى الاسعار في تداول سلعة معينة في السوق و هو في اي وقت مزيج من قرارات الاسعار التي اتخذها المتداولين في السوق

في حال وجود ثلاث متداولين في السوق يرغبون بشراء زوج من العملة و خمسون متداول يرغبون في البيع سعر هذا الزوج سوف يهبط لكن مالذي يحصل بالضبط؟ يتم تنفيذ اوامر البيع الثلاثة في السوق و لم يدخل احد و هؤلاء البائعين يعرضون رد فعل الاسعار لعدم وجود مزيد من الطلب

ويقال إن السوق قد انخفضت، ولكن السوق ليس كيانا كفيل ب إنتاج القرار. أنها ليست سوى وسيلة ليعكس قرارات المشاركين فيه. ما حدث هو ​​أن كل مشارك في السوق رد فعل لتغيير المعلومات الواردة من السوق، ونقص مؤقت من العطاءات، وردة فعلهم المجتمعة هي حركة في السعر. يعكس مستوى السعر الجديد اوامر المتداولين مجتمعة. ويبدو للمراقب  أن "السوق" تداول أقل من ذلك، فقط لأن الآلاف من القراراالفردية التي تتألف منها الحركة لا تعطى حياة منفصلة، فقط القرار الجماعي، والثمن، هو الذي يحدد.

وينعكس هذا الشعور في صنع قوة السوقالتي نستخدمها لوصف حركة السعر. ونحن غالبا ما نقول كان رد فعل السوق بشدة إلى أخبار أوالسوق استغرق ربح اليوم. نحن الذي يحدد  السوق وسلوكه

بالطبع نحن نعلم جميعا أنه لا يوجد مخلوق في مكان ما تحت الرصيف في وول ستريت اتخاذ القرارات الكلمة البورصة. ولكن الاستخدام الشائع لهذا الاختزال يميل إلى طمس ما هو أهم نقطة في فهم سيكولوجية السوق. وهي أن السوق هو صورة لأفكار المشاركين فيه، والسوق هو لقطة من عقولنا. السوق هو لنا.

التداول منطيقا هو أمر بسيط على الرفم من الصعوبة في التنفيذ بل هو مسألة وضع قراراتنا بما يتماشى مع الاغلبية و العقل الجماعي للسوق بقدر ما نستطيع

جوزيف تريفساني

كبير المحللين الاستراتيجين في ورلدوايدماركتس

ScreenHunter

August 12th, 2013 by WorldWideMarkets
Gold Gains on Fundamentals, Halts on Technicals

Gold

Gold rose to nearly a three week peak spurred by Friday's weaker than expected U.S. wholesale inventory data and Chinese consumption.

Gold touched $1,344.01 in thin New York trading, the best level for the precious metal since July 23rd, $1,346.83, and 24th, $1,348.60. It halted before the resistance formed by those two tops, the June 19th low at $1,349.28 and the June 20th high, $1,352.75,  the latter being  the day of the $76 fall  which led directly to the $1,180.57  three year low on June 28th. Wholesale inventories declined 0.2% in June on forecasts for a 0.4% gain, becoming the third negative month in a row. Businesses may not be replacing inventories because they are no longer anticipating an increase in sales and are letting costly stocks sell off. If firms are replacing their goods and raw material stockpiles at lower rates, this could subtract from second quarter GDP and diminish the chances that the Fed will begin to curtail its securities purchases in September. Retail sales for July are reported at 8:30 am tomorrow and a gain of 0.3% is forecast after a disappointing June result that at 0.4% was half the prediction. Gold traditionally rises with a weaker dollar, and markets have been anticipating a stronger dollar if the Fed begins to reduce its QE purchases in September. If the Fed does not do so traders will probably recalibrate their estimate of dollar strength in the third and fourth quarters. The China Gold Association reported today that gold consumption on the mainland climbed to 706.36 tons in the first half of this year. In all of 2012 only 832.18 tons tone were utilized. Joseph Trevisani Chief Market Strategist WorldWideMarkets Charts: Bloomberg bb1 bb2Gold Gains on Fundamentals, Halts on Technicals

Gold

August 9th, 2013 by WorldWideMarkets
US Oil : Ideas you can trade - short term momentum in down channel US Oil : Short term bearish momentum in down channel The daily candle chart below shows US Oil failing to hold onto the support line of a steep short term bullish channel (point 1 on chart) which was discussed in a previous article  in late July where it has since entered into a developing short term bearish channel (point 4) and exhibiting bearish momentum (point 8). US Oil is currently trading near 105.12 (as of publication) which coincides along the upper short term bearish resistance line (point 8) which has been followed closely over the past six trading sessions. A breakout above this short term line (point 8) could enable a bullish trend line (such as point 1 to develop) to support a target of the resistance line of the long term bullish channel (point 2) and the resistance line of the developing short term bearish channel (point 4). If US Oil does not break above the short term bearish resistance line, a bearish continuation could bring prices closer towards the support line of the short term bearish channel (point 4) and/or the short term bullish support line (point 3) with additional support further below near long and medium term bearish resistance (point 7 and point 5). Below are examples of how to trade a bullish reversal or a bearish continuation: 1.  BULLISH BUY ENTRY ORDER: Create a “Buy Entry Stop” @ 105.40 with a Limit to take profit @ 105.95 and a stop-loss @ 104.99 Risk/Reward Summary: Limit risk = +55 points profit / (-41 ) Stop-loss risk = Gain to Loss ratio =  1.34 2.  BEARISH SELL ENTRY ORDER: Create a “Sell Entry Stop” @103.59 with a Limit to take profit @ 102.45 and a stop-loss @ 104.44 Risk/Reward Summary:   Limit risk = +114  point profit / (-85 ) Stop-loss risk = Gain to Loss Ratio =   1.34 medium term chart: Oil  US Oil : Ideas you can trade - short term momentum in down channel US Oil : Short term bearish momentum in down channel The daily candle chart below shows US Oil failing to hold onto the support line of a steep short term bullish channel (point 1 on chart) which was discussed in a
August 8th, 2013 by Hani

Australian Dollar Fundamnetal and Technical Analysis

The overall weakness in the Australian Dollar since April has been caused by an unexpected slowdown in the Chinese economy, Australia's biggest export market, which began to be reported in mid-April.Australiandollar Chinese Economic Statistics Exports y/y: February 21.8%; March 10.0%, expected 11.7%, reported on April 9th; April 14.6%; May 1.0%; June -3.1%. They have revived to 5.1% in July. Imports y/y: February -15.0%; March 14.2%, reported April 9th; April 16.8%;  May -0.3%; June 0.7%; July 10.9%. Two other major economic statistics were weaker than anticipated and reported in mid-April also. Industrial production y/y: December 10.3%, (no figures for January and February); March 8.9%, expected 10.1%, reported on April 14th; April 9.3%, May 9.2%, June 8.9. GDP y/y: Q1 7.7%, expected 8.0% released April 14th, Q4 2011 7.9%, The Australian Dollar peaked on April 11 and the current well defined channel is dated to then. The purchasing managers index (PMI) showed increasing weakness throughout the spring and helped to keep the Australian Dollar under pressure. Official Manufacturing PMI: March 50.9; April 50.6, expected 50.7, reported on April 30th; June 50.1; July 50.3. Services PMI: January 56.2; February 54.5; March 55.6; April 54.5, reported May 2nd; May 54.5; June 53.9; July 54.1.  HSBC's numbers show a similar patern though the range is lower. They have July services PMI at 51.3 and manufacturing at 47.7. Technical Levels The Aud has been in a strong well defined down channel since the turn lower on April 11th. Several highs in late July (24th, 26th, 29th) halted at the upper border and trading on the 30th then turned back into the center of the channel. Today's high, 0.9135,  stopped just short of the upper limit which is now at 0.9152. The April 11th (1.0599)to August 8th (0.8848) move has, as of yet, seen no appreciable retracement. 0.9291 55 day moving average 0.9195  Offers 0.9160  Large stops 0.9150  Good resistance, offers, channel top 0.9119  21-day moving average Current Price 0.9102 0.9093 14 day moving average 0.9020 Medium support, bids 0.9000 Medium support, bids 0.8950 Good demand, bids 0.8900 Good demand, bids, stops   AUSSIE: Broad dollar weakness continues in the European afternoon as the aussie flushes stops through $0.9100 to print highs of $0.9104. Tech resistance seen at $0.9117 (21-day ma), strong offers behind at $0.9125/30 with large stops on a break.
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Australian Dollar Fundamnetal and Technical Analysis

The overall weakness in the Australian Dollar since April has been caused by an unexpected slowdown in the Chinese economy, Australia's biggest export market, which began to be reported in mid-April.
April 23rd, 2013 by Bill O'Leary
Bloomberg News April 19, 2013 3:14 PM ET
 
Fitch Ratings announced today that it is cutting the U.K.’s credit rating from AAA to AA+, the second-highest level, because of its weak economic performance and high public debt. This follows a similar move by Moody’s in February, and it doesn’t matter. As Svenja O’Donnell and Scott Hamilton note in reporting on the downgrade for Bloomberg, “Investors often ignore such moves,” and U.K. sovereign bond yields fell after the Moody’s downgrade. Investors are similarly blase today: Credit-default swap prices for the U.K. have barely moved. As of 2:05 p.m. in New York, U.K. five-year CDS are trading at $47.01, up all of 11 cents today. (That’s a price to insure $10,000 in bonds against five years of losses.)
That means that, despite the warnings from Fitch and Moody’s, investors still consider U.K. bonds to be less risky than they were in February and far less risky than they were last summer, when all three rating agencies were giving the country their top rating (see chart).
The U.K. government is not some regional water district. Rating agencies aren’t telling investors anything they don’t already know when they report that the U.K. has high debts and weak growth. Investors have (properly) judged that U.K. bonds are extremely low-risk instruments despite those troubles, and it’s no surprise the Fitch announcement hasn’t changed their minds. That won’t stop opponents of the U.K. coalition government’s austerity policies from saying that today’s action proves them right -- any more than it stopped advocates of austerity in the U.S. from claiming vindication after the Standard & Poor’s downgrade on this side of the Atlantic. But now, as then, the rating doesn’t matter.